As Garrett Wilson gears up for his upcoming NFL season with the New York Jets, there's significant buzz surrounding his potential to emerge as one of the league's elite wide receivers. With Aaron Rodgers, a Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback, now at the helm for the Jets, the stage is set for a remarkable leap in Wilson's production. Historical data from other receivers who thrived under Rodgers—Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb—provides valuable insights into what we might expect from Wilson this season.

Analyzing the Past: Adams, Nelson, and Cobb

Let's first dive into the historical performance of Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb. All three receivers saw significant jumps in their production during their early years in the league, particularly in their 3rd and 4th seasons, under the guidance of Aaron Rodgers. Below is a breakdown of their performance metrics and percentage increases from their 2nd to 3rd (or 4th) seasons:

Davante Adams

• PlayerReceptions +50%
• Targets +28.7%
• Receiving Yards +106.4%
• Touchdowns +1100%

Jordy Nelson

• PlayerReceptions +104.5%
• Targets +106.5%
• Receiving Yards +81.9%
• Touchdowns 0%

Randall Cobb

• PlayerReceptions +13.75%
• Targets +22.1%
• Receiving Yards +34.9%
• Touchdowns +50%

Average

• PlayerReceptions +56.1%
• Targets +52.4%
• Receiving Yards +74.4%
• Touchdowns +383.3%

The Aaron Rodgers Effect

One of the most significant factors in these players' success stories is the presence of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has a unique ability to elevate the performance of his wide receivers, particularly in their 3rd or 4th seasons, which is often when young players hit their stride. His precision, vision, and leadership on the field create opportunities for his receivers to make big plays, leading to substantial statistical increases.

Projecting Garrett Wilson’s 2024 Season

Garrett Wilson, entering his 3rd season, could follow a similar trajectory. Here's a look at Wilson's stats from 2023 and a projection for his 2024 season based on the average percentage increases from Adams, Nelson, and Cobb.

Metric2023 (Actual)

• PlayerReceptions 95
• Targets 168
• Receiving Yards 1,042
• Touchdowns 3

2024 (Projected)

• PlayerReceptions 148
• Targets 256
• Receiving Yards 1817
• Touchdowns 14-15

These projections suggest that Garrett Wilson is poised for a breakout season with potential career-highs in all major receiving categories. A projected 56.1% increase in receptions and a 74.4% increase in receiving yards could see Wilson crossing the 1,800-yard mark—a milestone that would place him among the NFL’s elite receivers. Most striking is the potential for his touchdown count to rise significantly, with a projection of 14-15 touchdowns, reflecting the red-zone prowess that Aaron Rodgers can help develop. For the sake of not being overly optimistic even though that data can support it we are going to lean a little more conservative and project 100+ catches, 1500 yards receiving, with over 10 touchdowns.

Conclusion

Garrett Wilson’s potential for a breakout season in 2024 is supported by historical data from some of the NFL’s top receivers who thrived under Aaron Rodgers. If Wilson follows in the footsteps of Adams, Nelson, and Cobb, Jets fans have every reason to be excited about the upcoming season. With Rodgers at quarterback and Wilson's undeniable talent, the sky's the limit for this rising star.

Stay tuned as the season unfolds, and watch for Garrett Wilson to possibly solidify his place among the league’s best.